How Vulnerable is Jon Tester to 2018 Loss? Answer: Very

How vulnerable is Senator Jon Tester in today’s political climate?

That question currently radiates throughout the Montana political scene as we gear up for yet another “nationally important” statewide race here in Big Sky Country.

Montana’s Flat-topped Democratic senior senator has so far managed to defy the odds makers in both of his previous Senate runs. In 2006, he upset 3-term incumbent Conrad Burns to gain the seat. In 2012, he fended off a strong challenge from 6-term U.S. Rep. Denny Rehberg to retain the seat, despite having to share the top of the Democratic ticket with Barack Obama.

But what is the outlook for 2018? The July poll from Morning Consult on the popularity of each U.S. Senator provides some interesting early insight as we head into 2018. In the July poll, Tester polled with an approval rating of 50 percent and a disapproval rating of 39 percent amongst Montana voters. Those might sound like good numbers until you place them in context of the approval ratings for other senators and then compare them to Morning Consult’s April numbers.

Despite voter approval ratings that hover somewhere in the neighborhood of rat poison for Congress as a whole, voters typically approve of their own senators and representatives. Tester’s disapproval rating of 39 percent is the 4th highest in the Senate. Tester’s counterpart, Republican Steve Daines, received a 53 percent approval rating and a 30 percent disapproval rating in the poll.

Since the inauguration of Donald Trump, the media would have us believe that Republicans are under siege nationwide. The narrative says that Donald Trump, in general, and the healthcare debate, in particular, are dragging down the Republican Party and an anti-GOP backlash is brewing amongst voters.

Maybe that is happening in other places, but what does the data say about Montana? If we compare the July poll to Morning Consult’s April poll, we find that Tester’s popularity has seen a 14 point negative swing in his popularity. In April, Tester was at 57 approve, 32 disapprove. After 7 months of dogged opposition to Trump and the GOP agenda, he finds himself significantly less popular. Daines has also seen his popularity slip, but by a far less dramatic 4 point swing, from 55 approve/28 disapprove to 53/30.

All of this despite the fact that Daines has been the senator under constant criticism and attack from the media, Democratic party, special interest groups, and liberal activists since January 20th. Despite the noise, it’s Tester who voters appear to be moving away from.

Clearly, the “anti-Trump backlash” that is supposed to be materializing against the Republican Party is not materializing in Montana and that is bad news for Tester. We saw some of this in May when Greg Gianforte, an unbelievably flawed candidate, was able to win the special election for Montana’s House seat by a comfortable margin.

If Tester finds himself in a battle against a statewide elected Republican candidate like Auditor Matt Rosendale next year, with the general conservative mood of the state in a mid-term election year that usually favors Republicans, Tester is very beatable.

5 thoughts on “How Vulnerable is Jon Tester to 2018 Loss? Answer: Very

  1. “TRUTH TELLER”
    Just as COPPER will ‘transition’ into GOLD,
    “THC-A” that eaten “HEALS”, will “transition” into “THC” that ‘INTOXICATES’ !
    RUSSIA can tell the WORLD LEADERS, but FEDERAL router #08FX08003374 has been ‘hacking’ me for over 7 years killing 2 computers because of my HONESTY !
    ~ STOP FEARING, ADVANCE HUMANITY ~
    I want to get this straight. I am the great great grandson of Black Elk. I am LAKOTA SIOUX. Okay, I thought that by showing the WORLD that MARIJUANA has healed my BRAIN INJURY enough to get my “thought process” working so well that I was able to “retain” the information to TRANSITION copper into GOLD. So far most just think I am “HIGH”. While the FEDS have hacked & destroyed 2 computer systems. ~ The “GOOD OLE BOY” system is hard at work. ~MARIJUANA was used to make HEMP “illegal”. HEMP will “heal” the ATMOSPHERE. That is why I was “returned” from DEATH with the worst brain injury received in a motor bike wreck, to show the WORLD “MARIJUANA” heals. That way HEMP can HEAL EARTH ~ ♥ ~ P.S. ~ I have accepted this, can you ? ~ WAKE-UP ~ I might of figured out how GOLD was “transitioned” & from what. But that has only “created” FEAR. I just do not get it ! I have done nothing but use SCIENCE to “back” all my claims. They only have WORDS to back them up. Who do you think is BELIEVED ? On 08-30-2008 I had the worst motor bike wreck with no helmet on to survive in MONTANA. I died 3 times in life flight. It crushed my chest breaking all my ribs many times, putting ribs into both lungs. I was in an 87 day come, waking with a registered 5.5 brain injury. I was told that THC saved my brain from lack of oxygen. Smoking MARIJUANA is opening my airway to accept oxygen. But the biggest is that MARIJUANA is HEALING my brain.

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  2. Demacrats are constantly showing without lies and illegals they are nothing ! PRES Trump came out with exact promises and is following those promises and those promises are for America !! Demacrats only know organized violence and lying media !! Why vote Demacrat ?

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  3. Tester is out of touch with Montana. Daines talks a lot but does nothing. Where is Montana’s representative.

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  4. Tripe. Tester is a good choice for montana. He isn’t interested in cowtowing to the tinfoil hat & bundy group. Which is good. He will win again.

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